Debbie Lerman
August 20, 2025
Brownstone Journal

Debbie Lerman is a retired science writer and author of The Deep State Goes Viral: Pandemic Planning and the Covid Coup. (source)

"The Three-Spike Pattern

In this article, I will not attempt to quantify excess mortality in the years since Covid, nor will I establish a one-to-one correlation between Covid vaccinations and deaths...

My purpose is to provide information that supports and corroborates these researchers’ [Ed Dowd and Dennis Rancourt et. al] conclusions, showing that in a variety of disparate databases, an almost identical pattern of excess deaths appears every time – which I will refer to as the three-spike pattern. The same pattern appears in death reports in VAERS (the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System of the CDC) and in overall mortality trends both nationally and in individual states.

Specifically, the three-spike pattern appears in every data set around these periods:

  • December 2020-January 2021
  • August-September 2021
  • January-February 2022

My contention in this article is that the mRNA vaccine rollouts/approvals are the singular events that correspond exactly with the three-spike pattern in all of these datasets:

  • December 11, 2020: Pfizer/BioNTech Emergency Use Authorization
  • December 18, 2020: Moderna Emergency Use Authorization
  • August 23, 2021: Pfizer 'full FDA approval'
  • January 31, 2022: Moderna 'full FDA approval'...

Three-Spike Post-2020 Excess Mortality Shocks Life Insurance Experts

In May 2024, life insurance experts affiliated with the nonprofit Insurance Collaboration to Save Lives got together to discuss trends in the life insurance industry – specifically, the surprising rise in excess mortality rates after 2020. The conversation began with a statement about how unusual it was to even be talking about 'excess mortality'...

The implication here is that the life insurance industry does a good job of projecting death rates, because that’s what their entire business model depends on. So talking about 'excess mortality' – which means unanticipated deaths – almost never happens.

This was followed by an acknowledgement of the unprecedented trend of excess mortality after Covid:

In past pandemics, you see a pull forward of mortality, and then you see a valley for the mortality that was pulled forward. That usually is the next year. We’re four years on, and we haven’t seen any kind of a valley, and when you see an average of a 6%, a 12% increase, there are some age groups that were still 20% last year, still 20% up.

In other words, based on previous mortality trends after disease outbreaks, we would expect an increase in mortality above the projected level the first year, and then a decrease back to pre-outbreak projections, or even below them, after that. But with Covid this has not happened.

Detailing the unprecedented elevated excess mortality following the 2020 Covid emergency, a participant presented this analysis of the age-standardized excess mortality for the United States:

... In December 2020, it was 41% higher than it was supposed to be. September 2021 was a weird month for that, as it was 39% higher than it was supposed to be. But luckily in 2022, it declined. But you’re still in this 10%, 12%, 11%, 14% in December 2022. These are big numbers, these are very stable. Recently, in 2023, it’s been more like 6%. The data’s not mature yet for the more recent months, but in January 2024, so far it’s 6.2%...

The mRNA vaccine rollouts are an obvious potential explanation, which everyone seems to willfully ignore.

What can we say about the three-spike pattern?

The more different data sets we examine, the more we see the same pattern over and over: in the one-to-two-month period right after the rollouts/approvals of Pfizer and Modern mRNA vaccines, death rates spike above all previous (and in most cases subsequent) levels...

Conclusion

There is no doubt that excess mortality rates in various populations surged in 2021 – above all predictions, even given the Covid-19 event of 2020.

This occurred on the population level and in sub-populations across diverse geographic regions.

A giant spike in disabilities also occurred in 2021.

The spikes in deaths and disabilities corresponded to the rollouts of the mRNA vaccines."

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COVID-19,excess mortality,health statistics,mRNA,vaccines